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Santa Fe vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 01:00

Santa Fe

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Once Caldas

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.1%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 48.1% 2.08 +10.7%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 28.2% 3.55 +14.3%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe1.8

Once Caldas1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.73

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +10.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Once Caldas (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Once Caldas 23%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Santa Fe and 1.0 for Once Caldas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.30 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Santa Fe vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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