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Junior vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:15

Junior

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Millonarios

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.7%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 46.7% 2.14 +19.8%

Draw 22.3% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Away win 21.8% 29.0% 3.45 -14.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 50.0% 2.00 +22.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 29.0% 3.45 +28.7%

BTTS 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Home O1.5 57.3% 46.5% 2.15 +23.2%

Away O1.5 33.3% 33.9% 2.95 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior2.0

Millonarios1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.85

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 56.0%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +19.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

Millonarios (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Millonarios 22%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Junior and 1.0 for Millonarios (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.56 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.1%.

Junior vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions