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Jaguares vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:45

Jaguares

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Nacional

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.3%0-27.9%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.8%1-112.0%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 21.5% 4.65 +64.6%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Away win 40.4% 57.8% 1.73 -30.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.3% 1.95 +4.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 29.4% 3.40 +9.5%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 27.0% 3.70 +20.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares1.2

Atletico Nacional1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES · PPG 1.60

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares (H) 35.4%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +64.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

Atletico Nacional (A) 40.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares face Atletico Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Nacional 40%, so Atletico Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jaguares and 1.5 for Atletico Nacional (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.62 for Atletico Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.7%.

Jaguares vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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