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Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 01:20

Millonarios

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-19.0%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-16.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 64.5% 1.55 -11.8%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 21.0% 16.1% 6.20 +18.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 51.3% 1.95 +17.8%

Over 3.5 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Away O1.5 23.9% 22.2% 4.50 +4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios2.2

Deportivo Pasto0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS · PPG 1.91

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 21.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto 21%, so Millonarios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Millonarios and 0.9 for Deportivo Pasto (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.27 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.5%.

Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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