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Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 23:15

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.3%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-110.9%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.3% 3.80 +5.9%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.0% 3.45 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 10.9%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima1.7

Independiente Medellin0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.23

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Independiente Medellin (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Independiente Medellin in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellin 22%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Independiente Medellin (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.33 for Independiente Medellin. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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