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Llaneros vs Fortaleza FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 21:10

Llaneros

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza FC

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.5%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.8%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 47.6% 2.10 +7.9%

Draw 27.1% 32.8% 3.05 -10.4%

Away win 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.0% 2.38 +4.7%

Over 3.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 41.9% 41.7% 2.40 +0.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.4

Fortaleza FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.30

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +7.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.4%

Fortaleza FC (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Fortaleza FC in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Fortaleza FC 22%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Llaneros and 0.7 for Fortaleza FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.50 for Fortaleza FC. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Llaneros vs Fortaleza FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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