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Internacional de Bogota vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 23:15

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaguares

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.1%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-17.5%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Draw 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Away win 16.3% 17.2% 5.80 -3.3%

Over 2.5 62.9% 48.8% 2.05 +28.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 27.0% 3.70 +43.6%

BTTS 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 54.6% 1.83 +14.2%

Away O1.5 20.4% 22.2% 4.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional de Bogota2.3

Jaguares0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 1.64

JAGUARES · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.64 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Internacional de Bogota (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +2.1%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

Jaguares (A) 16.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional de Bogota face Jaguares in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional de Bogota a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Jaguares 16%, so Internacional de Bogota are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Internacional de Bogota and 0.8 for Jaguares (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional de Bogota are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.20 for Jaguares. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.6%.

Internacional de Bogota vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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