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Bucaramanga vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 01:00

Bucaramanga

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cucuta

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.4%1-15.8%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.9%4+-110.9%4+-23.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.2% 63.3% 1.58 +15.7%

Draw 17.7% 27.4% 3.65 -21.2%

Away win 9.1% 16.1% 6.20 -26.2%

Over 2.5 66.8% 47.6% 2.10 +40.3%

Over 3.5 44.8% 26.3% 3.80 +70.2%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 70.7% 55.6% 1.80 +27.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 21.1% 4.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -0.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 73% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 4–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucaramanga2.8

Cucuta0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 1.70

CUCUTA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.15 for Home, form 1.70 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bucaramanga (H) 73.2%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV +15.7%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -21.2%

Cucuta (A) 9.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucaramanga face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucaramanga a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Cucuta 9%, so Bucaramanga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Bucaramanga and 0.7 for Cucuta (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucaramanga are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.36 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.2%.

Bucaramanga vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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