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Forward Madison vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 00:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.8%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.7%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-18.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 44.4% 2.25 +36.6%

Draw 19.9% 32.3% 3.10 -23.0%

Away win 19.4% 32.3% 3.10 -23.9%

Over 2.5 64.0% 54.1% 1.85 +18.4%

Over 3.5 42.8% 32.3% 3.10 +32.7%

BTTS 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 47.6% 2.10 +26.2%

Away O1.5 26.8% 39.2% 2.55 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 15.4%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.3%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison2.4

Chattanooga Red Wolves0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.67

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.67 vs 1.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 60.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +36.6%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.0%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (A) 19.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face Chattanooga Red Wolves in USA - USL League One on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Chattanooga Red Wolves 19%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Forward Madison and 0.9 for Chattanooga Red Wolves (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.43 for Chattanooga Red Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +65.8%.

Forward Madison vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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