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Charlotte Independence vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Charlotte Independence

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

One Knoxville

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.3%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-19.0%1-26.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.9%3-16.6%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.6%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 27.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte Independence2.1

One Knoxville1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 2.62

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte Independence (H) 50.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

One Knoxville (A) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte Independence face One Knoxville in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte Independence a 50% chance, the draw 22% and One Knoxville 28%, so Charlotte Independence are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Charlotte Independence and 1.4 for One Knoxville (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte Independence are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 2.12 for One Knoxville.

Charlotte Independence vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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