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Fort Wayne vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

Fort Wayne

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Omaha

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.4%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-111.0%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.3%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fort Wayne1.7

Union Omaha0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FORT WAYNE · PPG 2.14

UNION OMAHA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fort Wayne (H) 54.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Omaha (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fort Wayne face Union Omaha in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fort Wayne a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Union Omaha 21%, so Fort Wayne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fort Wayne and 0.7 for Union Omaha (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fort Wayne are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.33 for Union Omaha.

Fort Wayne vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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