Today / USA - USL League One / Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Greenville Triumph

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.3%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.1%1-110.1%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.9%3-16.2%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenville Triumph1.9

Portland Hearts of Pine1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 1.62

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Greenville Triumph (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Portland Hearts of Pine (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenville Triumph face Portland Hearts of Pine in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenville Triumph a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Portland Hearts of Pine 25%, so Greenville Triumph are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Greenville Triumph and 1.3 for Portland Hearts of Pine (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenville Triumph are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.89 for Portland Hearts of Pine.

Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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