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Sarasota Paradise vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

Sarasota Paradise

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naples

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.1%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.6%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.2% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarasota Paradise1.6

Naples0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SARASOTA PARADISE · PPG 1.44

NAPLES · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarasota Paradise (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Naples (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarasota Paradise face Naples in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarasota Paradise a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Naples 22%, so Sarasota Paradise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sarasota Paradise and 0.9 for Naples (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarasota Paradise are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Naples.

Sarasota Paradise vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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