Today / Finland - Ykkonen / VJS vs PKKU

VJS vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 16:00

VJS

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

PKKU

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.9%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.3%1-110.4%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 65.4% 1.53 -28.7%

Draw 23.5% 24.4% 4.10 -2.2%

Away win 29.9% 22.2% 4.50 +20.7%

Over 2.5 63.5% 74.6% 1.34 -14.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 53.8% 1.86 -25.0%

BTTS 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% 42.0% 2.38 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VJS1.8

PKKU1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VJS · PPG 1.75

PKKU · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

VJS (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -28.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.2%

PKKU (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

VJS face PKKU in Finland - Ykkonen on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VJS a 47% chance, the draw 24% and PKKU 30%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for VJS and 1.4 for PKKU (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VJS are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.62 for PKKU. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.3%.

VJS vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions