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TPV vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

TPV

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rops

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.8%0-210.4%0-36.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.2%2-24.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 22.2% 4.50 +3.7%

Draw 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -2.0%

Away win 51.7% 62.5% 1.60 -17.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 50.0% 2.00 -35.6%

BTTS 52.6% 69.4% 1.44 -24.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 69.4% 1.44 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob52.6%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV0.9

Rops1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.50

ROPS · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.84 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 23.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +3.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.0%

Rops (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face Rops in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Rops 52%, so Rops are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for TPV and 1.8 for Rops (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Rops.

TPV vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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