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KuPS Akatemia vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 13:00

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

VJS

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.9%0-26.2%0-34.3%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.2%1-18.7%1-29.1%1-36.3%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.7%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.3%3-32.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 23.8% 4.20 +33.1%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 45.9% 62.5% 1.60 -26.6%

Over 2.5 66.0% 75.2% 1.33 -12.2%

Over 3.5 43.4% 54.6% 1.83 -20.6%

BTTS 64.5% 73.5% 1.36 -12.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 42.0% 2.38 +10.2%

Away O1.5 53.1% 73.5% 1.36 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -29.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.5%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS Akatemia1.5

VJS2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.86

VJS · PPG 1.29

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

KuPS Akatemia (H) 31.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +33.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

VJS (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS Akatemia face VJS in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS Akatemia a 32% chance, the draw 22% and VJS 46%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KuPS Akatemia and 2.1 for VJS (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS Akatemia are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.29 for VJS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.2%.

KuPS Akatemia vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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