Today / Finland - Ykkonen / KPV-j vs SalPa

KPV-j vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

KPV-j

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

SalPa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.2%0-27.3%0-36.8%0-4+9.2%1 1-02.2%1-16.2%1-28.7%1-38.0%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.3%2-13.7%2-25.2%2-34.8%2-4+6.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.1%3-31.9%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 20.0% 5.00 -17.4%

Draw 18.7% 20.8% 4.80 -6.1%

Away win 67.1% 71.4% 1.40 -6.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 54.6% 1.83 -18.0%

BTTS 62.1% 69.4% 1.44 -10.6%

Home O1.5 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% 78.1% 1.28 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob62.1%

A 67% / xG 1.2-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–3 8.0%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KPV-j1.2

SalPa2.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KPV-J · PPG 0.50

SALPA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.59 for Away, form 0.50 vs 1.50

Win probability 1X2

KPV-j (H) 14.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -6.1%

SalPa (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

KPV-j face SalPa in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KPV-j a 14% chance, the draw 19% and SalPa 67%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for KPV-j and 2.8 for SalPa (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KPV-j are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for SalPa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.0%.

KPV-j vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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