Today / Finland - Ykkonen / FC jazz vs KuPS Akatemia

FC jazz vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 16:00

FC jazz

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.9%0-22.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.6%1-17.1%1-25.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-18.6%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.9%3-25.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-17.4%4+-25.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 54.1% 1.85 -0.8%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 78.1% 1.28 -14.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 57.8% 1.73 -22.3%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Away O1.5 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC jazz2.4

KuPS Akatemia1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JAZZ · PPG 0.88

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC jazz (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

KuPS Akatemia (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC jazz face KuPS Akatemia in Finland - Ykkonen on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC jazz a 54% chance, the draw 22% and KuPS Akatemia 24%, so FC jazz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC jazz and 1.5 for KuPS Akatemia (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC jazz are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.38 for KuPS Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.8%.

FC jazz vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions