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PKKU vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:30

PKKU

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tampere United

PPG 2.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.1%0-29.8%0-34.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.9%2-15.8%2-24.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

Draw 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 46.1% 48.8% 2.05 -5.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 66.7% 1.50 -24.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 50.0% 2.00 -34.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU0.9

Tampere United1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.50

TAMPERE UNITED · PPG 2.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 27.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Tampere United (A) 46.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face Tampere United in Finland - Ykkonen on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Tampere United 46%, so Tampere United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for PKKU and 1.5 for Tampere United (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.62 for Tampere United.

PKKU vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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