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LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 23 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 00:00

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Delfin SC

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.8%0-110.3%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.6%1-19.9%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.7%2-14.7%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.7%3-11.5%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 78.7% 1.27 -39.3%

Draw 31.1% 20.6% 4.85 +50.8%

Away win 21.1% 7.4% 13.50 +110.9%

Over 2.5 31.1% 51.3% 1.95 -39.4%

Over 3.5 13.1% 29.4% 3.40 -33.3%

BTTS 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 66.7% 1.50 -51.1%

Away O1.5 11.1% 14.3% 7.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.2%

H 48% / xG 1.0-0.4 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.8%

#2 1–0 24.6%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU de Quito1.0

Delfin SC0.4

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.50

DELFIN SC · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LDU de Quito (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -39.3%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +50.8%

Delfin SC (A) 21.1%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +110.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU de Quito face Delfin SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU de Quito a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Delfin SC 21%, so LDU de Quito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for LDU de Quito and 0.4 for Delfin SC (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU de Quito are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.55 for Delfin SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +42.1%.

LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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