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Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:30

Universidad Catolica

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-15.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-110.1%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-13.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 68.0% 1.47 -17.8%

Draw 23.0% 24.4% 4.10 -3.4%

Away win 21.1% 14.7% 6.80 +26.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.6% 1.83 -7.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

BTTS 48.7% 52.6% 1.90 -7.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 62.5% 1.60 -21.0%

Away O1.5 19.4% 22.2% 4.50 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad Catolica1.8

Tecnico Universitario0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 2.09

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad Catolica (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -17.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.4%

Tecnico Universitario (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad Catolica face Tecnico Universitario in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad Catolica a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Tecnico Universitario 21%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Universidad Catolica and 0.6 for Tecnico Universitario (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad Catolica are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.91 for Tecnico Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Universidad Catolica vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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