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Leones del Norte vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 23:10

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barcelona SC

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-112.5%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones del Norte1.0

Barcelona SC0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.73

BARCELONA SC · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones del Norte (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barcelona SC (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones del Norte face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones del Norte a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Barcelona SC 24%, so Leones del Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leones del Norte and 0.7 for Barcelona SC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones del Norte are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.91 for Barcelona SC.

Leones del Norte vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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