Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Libertad vs Orense SC

Libertad vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 00:00

Libertad

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orense SC

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.5%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 36.5% 2.74 +35.1%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 24.0% 40.7% 2.46 -24.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +1.6%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 39.2% 2.55 +15.8%

Away O1.5 29.7% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.5

Orense SC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.70

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +35.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

Orense SC (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Orense SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Orense SC 24%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Libertad and 1.0 for Orense SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.10 for Orense SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Libertad vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions