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Emelec vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Emelec

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aucas

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-112.2%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 27.8% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.0% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 23.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.1

Aucas0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.73

AUCAS · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aucas (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Aucas in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Aucas 28%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Emelec and 0.9 for Aucas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.45 for Aucas.

Emelec vs Aucas Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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