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Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Manta FC

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-116.1%0-28.3%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.3%2-15.5%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 32.8% 3.05 -1.2%

Draw 32.1% 31.7% 3.15 +1.1%

Away win 35.4% 42.7% 2.34 -17.2%

Over 2.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

Over 3.5 19.4% 23.8% 4.20 -11.1%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 33.4% 40.8% 2.45 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta FC0.8

Mushuc Runa SC1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA FC · PPG 0.82

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 0.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manta FC (H) 32.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -1.2%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +1.1%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta FC face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta FC a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Mushuc Runa SC 35%, so Mushuc Runa SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Manta FC and 1.0 for Mushuc Runa SC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta FC are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 0.60 for Mushuc Runa SC.

Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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