Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / 22 de Julio vs El Nacional
22 de Julio vs El Nacional Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B
Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 20:30
// Model verdict
Home
xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 45%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%
Form & verdict
22 DE JULIO · PPG 1.22
EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.11
xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
22 de Julio face El Nacional in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 22 de Julio a 52% chance, the draw 26% and El Nacional 21%, so 22 de Julio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for 22 de Julio and 0.6 for El Nacional (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 22 de Julio are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.11 for El Nacional.