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Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 2.27 vs 1.45 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.3%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-16.3%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.8%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.7%3-17.8%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-110.2%4+-23.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.2% — — —

Draw 17.7% — — —

Away win 9.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 73% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.7

Deportivo Cuenca0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.27

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 2.27 vs 1.45 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 73.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Cuenca (A) 9.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Deportivo Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Deportivo Cuenca 9%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Independiente del Valle and 0.7 for Deportivo Cuenca (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.45 for Deportivo Cuenca.

Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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