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Macara vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:30

Macara

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-18.2%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.8%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.6% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.4

Guayaquil City FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.82

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guayaquil City FC (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Guayaquil City FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Guayaquil City FC 21%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Macara and 0.7 for Guayaquil City FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.09 for Guayaquil City FC.

Macara vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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