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Železničar Pančevo vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 19:00

Železničar Pančevo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-17.8%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-111.5%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.5%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 58.1% 1.72 -13.0%

Draw 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

Away win 21.1% 22.0% 4.55 -2.4%

Over 2.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

Over 3.5 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

BTTS 45.4% 54.6% 1.83 -16.9%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Železničar Pančevo1.5

Mladost Lucani0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO · PPG 2.12

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Železničar Pančevo (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -13.0%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

Mladost Lucani (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Železničar Pančevo face Mladost Lucani in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Železničar Pančevo a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Mladost Lucani 21%, so Železničar Pančevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Železničar Pančevo and 0.7 for Mladost Lucani (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Železničar Pančevo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.11 for Mladost Lucani. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Železničar Pančevo vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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