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FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Regular Season - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

FK Partizan

PPG 1.96 · HOME

UPCOMING

IMT Novi Beograd

PPG 1.74 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.3%1-27.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 62.1% 1.61 -21.4%

Draw 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -5.0%

Away win 28.0% 21.7% 4.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 57.8% 1.73 +10.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 35.7% 2.80 +12.3%

BTTS 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 29.4% 3.40 +48.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Partizan1.8

IMT Novi Beograd1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FK PARTIZAN · PPG 1.96

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD · PPG 1.74

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Partizan (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -21.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.0%

IMT Novi Beograd (A) 28.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Partizan face IMT Novi Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Partizan a 49% chance, the draw 23% and IMT Novi Beograd 28%, so FK Partizan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FK Partizan and 1.4 for IMT Novi Beograd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Partizan are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.74 for IMT Novi Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +48.6%.

FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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