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Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Regular Season - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.93 · HOME

UPCOMING

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.5%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-15.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 53.5% 1.87 +4.9%

Draw 23.2% 29.0% 3.45 -12.0%

Away win 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 48.7% 60.6% 1.65 -19.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 33.9% 2.95 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.8

OFK Beograd0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.93

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.0%

OFK Beograd (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face OFK Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 56% chance, the draw 23% and OFK Beograd 21%, so Novi Pazar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Novi Pazar and 0.7 for OFK Beograd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.24 for OFK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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