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Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 15:00

Botev Vratsa

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Lokomotiv Sofia

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-112.0%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.5%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 35.1% 2.85 +13.2%

Draw 30.2% 30.3% 3.30 -0.3%

Away win 30.1% 44.4% 2.25 -32.3%

Over 2.5 33.7% 54.1% 1.85 -37.6%

Over 3.5 15.2% 31.3% 3.20 -51.4%

BTTS 40.8% 59.9% 1.67 -31.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.8%

D 30% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Vratsa1.1

Lokomotiv Sofia0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 1.29

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Botev Vratsa (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +13.2%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.3%

Lokomotiv Sofia (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Vratsa face Lokomotiv Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Vratsa a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Lokomotiv Sofia 30%, so Botev Vratsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botev Vratsa and 0.9 for Lokomotiv Sofia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Vratsa are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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