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Stabaek vs hodd Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

hodd

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.7%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.6%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.7%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-15.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 71.4% 1.40 -20.2%

Draw 22.5% 21.1% 4.75 +4.1%

Away win 20.4% 17.2% 5.80 +11.0%

Over 2.5 54.3% 75.2% 1.33 -27.8%

Over 3.5 34.5% 54.1% 1.85 -36.2%

BTTS 52.3% 69.0% 1.45 -24.2%

Home O1.5 60.7% 78.1% 1.28 -22.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 36.4% 2.75 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 1.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek2.1

hodd0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.50

HODD · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +4.1%

hodd (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face hodd in Norway - 1st Division on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 57% chance, the draw 23% and hodd 20%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stabaek and 0.8 for hodd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.14 for hodd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Stabaek vs hodd Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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