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Asane vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Asane

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Egersund

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.9%0-22.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.7%1-18.4%1-26.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.6%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.0%4+-24.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 29.9% 3.35 +81.6%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 23.6% 54.1% 1.85 -33.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 48.8% 2.05 -8.8%

BTTS 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Home O1.5 61.8% 46.5% 2.15 +32.9%

Away O1.5 47.8% 63.7% 1.57 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.9%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asane2.2

Egersund1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASANE · PPG 1.71

EGERSUND · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Asane (H) 54.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +81.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Egersund (A) 23.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asane face Egersund in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asane a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Egersund 24%, so Asane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Asane and 1.5 for Egersund (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asane are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.50 for Egersund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +80.0%.

Asane vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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