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Lyn vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Lyn

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogndal

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.5%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.5%1-17.7%1-26.5%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.5%3-16.0%3-25.1%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.4%4+-24.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 41.7% 2.40 +19.0%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 28.2% 41.7% 2.40 -19.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 74.1% 1.35 -9.6%

Over 3.5 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

BTTS 70.3% 76.9% 1.30 -8.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 59.9% 1.67 +0.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob70.3%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyn2.2

Sogndal1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LYN · PPG 0.75

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lyn (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +19.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

Sogndal (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyn face Sogndal in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyn a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Sogndal 28%, so Lyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lyn and 1.7 for Sogndal (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyn are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.62 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.6%.

Lyn vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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