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Kongsvinger vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Strommen

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.7%1-12.5%1-21.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.5%2-15.2%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-17.0%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-022.9%4+-121.4%4+-210.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.7% 75.2% 1.33 -0.7%

Draw 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -9.9%

Away win 8.7% 14.7% 6.80 -24.5%

Over 2.5 74.5% 76.9% 1.30 -3.1%

Over 3.5 54.0% 56.5% 1.77 -4.4%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 80.0% 1.25 -2.8%

Away O1.5 27.0% 35.1% 2.85 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 83%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob62.1%

H 75% / xG 4.1-0.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.7%

#2 3–0 7.5%

#3 4–1 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 5–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger4.1

Strommen0.9

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.71

STROMMEN · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.15 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 74.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -0.7%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.9%

Strommen (A) 8.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Strommen in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Strommen 9%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Kongsvinger and 0.9 for Strommen (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.57 for Strommen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Kongsvinger vs Strommen Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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