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Moss vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Moss

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Raufoss

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.2%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.0%1-17.8%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.7%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-18.3%4+-24.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 19.9% 24.4% 4.10 -11.1%

Over 2.5 66.9% 72.5% 1.38 -7.7%

Over 3.5 44.5% 51.3% 1.95 -13.2%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 61.8% 70.4% 1.42 -12.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss2.4

Raufoss1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.33

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Raufoss (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Raufoss in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Raufoss 20%, so Moss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Moss and 1.1 for Raufoss (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.43 for Raufoss.

Moss vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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