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Raufoss vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Raufoss

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stabaek

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.8%0-27.8%0-35.1%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.9%1-19.8%1-29.7%1-36.4%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.1%2-26.0%2-34.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 22.2% 4.50 +18.6%

Draw 21.8% 23.1% 4.33 -3.4%

Away win 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 75.2% 1.33 -15.4%

Over 3.5 40.6% 54.1% 1.85 -24.9%

BTTS 62.1% 72.5% 1.38 -14.3%

Home O1.5 34.0% 42.6% 2.35 -20.1%

Away O1.5 50.0% 73.5% 1.36 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.1%

A 49% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raufoss1.2

Stabaek2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RAUFOSS · PPG 1.43

STABAEK · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Raufoss (H) 29.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +18.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.4%

Stabaek (A) 49.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raufoss face Stabaek in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raufoss a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Stabaek 49%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Raufoss and 2.0 for Stabaek (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raufoss are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Raufoss vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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