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AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:30

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.8%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-18.5%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 69.4% 1.44 -18.9%

Draw 22.0% 22.7% 4.40 -1.9%

Away win 21.7% 14.7% 6.80 +28.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Over 3.5 40.1% 41.7% 2.40 -3.8%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 28.2% 3.55 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIK Stockholm2.2

Orgryte IS0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.50

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AIK Stockholm (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.9%

Orgryte IS (A) 21.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIK Stockholm face Orgryte IS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIK Stockholm a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Orgryte IS 22%, so AIK Stockholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for AIK Stockholm and 0.8 for Orgryte IS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.43 for Orgryte IS. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.5%.

AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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