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Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 14:30

Malmo FF

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.5%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.1%1-19.3%1-26.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.1%3-16.6%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 54.1% 1.85 +0.3%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 59.9% 1.67 +6.4%

Over 3.5 42.0% 37.7% 2.65 +11.3%

BTTS 62.7% 63.7% 1.57 -1.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 57.1% 1.75 +8.2%

Away O1.5 39.3% 37.7% 2.65 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 11.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.7%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF2.1

IF Elfsborg1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.50

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

IF Elfsborg (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face IF Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and IF Elfsborg 24%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Malmo FF and 1.3 for IF Elfsborg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for IF Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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