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Sirius vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

Sirius

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+15.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.5%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.3%1-12.3%1-21.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.7%2-14.8%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-16.8%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-122.4%4+-211.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 69.4% 1.44 +4.0%

Draw 17.0% 21.7% 4.60 -13.1%

Away win 10.7% 16.1% 6.20 -20.2%

Over 2.5 79.6% 69.0% 1.45 +15.4%

Over 3.5 57.9% 47.6% 2.10 +21.6%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 77.8% 72.5% 1.38 +7.4%

Away O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 11.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob63.1%

H 72% / xG 4.2-1.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.1%

#2 4–0 7.0%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 3–0 6.7%

#5 5–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sirius4.2

IFK Goteborg1.0

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRIUS · PPG 2.67

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.21 for Home, form 2.67 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sirius (H) 72.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +4.0%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.1%

IFK Goteborg (A) 10.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sirius face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sirius a 72% chance, the draw 17% and IFK Goteborg 11%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Sirius and 1.0 for IFK Goteborg (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sirius are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.14 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.9%.

Sirius vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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