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BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

BK Hacken

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.6%0-23.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.4%1-19.2%1-26.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.3%3-16.2%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.9%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 54.1% 1.85 -8.2%

Draw 22.4% 25.3% 3.95 -6.9%

Away win 28.1% 27.4% 3.65 +1.5%

Over 2.5 66.0% 66.7% 1.50 -1.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 61.7% 1.62 -9.8%

Away O1.5 42.9% 42.0% 2.38 +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BK Hacken2.0

AIK Stockholm1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BK HACKEN · PPG 1.83

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BK Hacken (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.9%

AIK Stockholm (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

BK Hacken face AIK Stockholm in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BK Hacken a 50% chance, the draw 22% and AIK Stockholm 28%, so BK Hacken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for BK Hacken and 1.4 for AIK Stockholm (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BK Hacken are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.71 for AIK Stockholm. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.1%.

BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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