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IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Degerfors IF

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.2%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.1%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 27.1% 21.1% 4.75 +17.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 29.9% 3.35 +22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg1.5

Degerfors IF1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.83

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

Degerfors IF (A) 27.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face Degerfors IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Degerfors IF 27%, so IFK Goteborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IFK Goteborg and 1.2 for Degerfors IF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.83 for Degerfors IF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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