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Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:30

Panevėžys

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.8%0-29.0%0-34.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.0%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.4%2-16.3%2-24.4%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

Draw 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Away win 41.9% 44.4% 2.25 -5.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.4% 3.40 -1.0%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 9.0%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevėžys1.0

Džiugas Telšiai1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 1.45

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.42, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Panevėžys (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

Džiugas Telšiai (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevėžys face Džiugas Telšiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevėžys a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Džiugas Telšiai 42%, so Džiugas Telšiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Panevėžys and 1.4 for Džiugas Telšiai (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevėžys are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.60 for Džiugas Telšiai. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Panevėžys vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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