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Šiauliai vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:45

Šiauliai

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Banga

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-116.9%0-213.4%0-37.1%0-4+4.0%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.3%2-13.6%2-22.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.9% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 60.0% — — —

Over 2.5 48.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.7%

A 60% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.9%

#2 0–2 13.4%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šiauliai0.7

Banga1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 1.00

BANGA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Šiauliai (H) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Banga (A) 60.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Šiauliai face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šiauliai a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Banga 60%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Šiauliai and 1.6 for Banga (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šiauliai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Banga.

Šiauliai vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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