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Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:30

Zalaegerszegi TE

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paks

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.7%0-26.7%0-34.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.8%1-19.5%1-29.3%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.6%2-26.5%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Draw 22.7% 29.0% 3.45 -13.0%

Away win 45.2% 48.1% 2.08 -6.0%

Over 2.5 63.8% 62.5% 1.60 +2.1%

Over 3.5 40.6% 40.0% 2.50 +1.5%

BTTS 62.6% 67.6% 1.48 -7.3%

Home O1.5 44.9% 43.5% 2.30 +3.3%

Away O1.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.6%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalaegerszegi TE1.4

Paks2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE · PPG 1.60

PAKS · PPG 1.48

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Zalaegerszegi TE (H) 32.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.0%

Paks (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalaegerszegi TE face Paks in Hungary - NB I on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalaegerszegi TE a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Paks 45%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zalaegerszegi TE and 2.0 for Paks (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalaegerszegi TE are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.48 for Paks. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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