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Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Puskas Academy

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.8%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.1%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Away win 24.3% 23.1% 4.33 +3.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 28.2% 28.2% 3.55 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puskas Academy1.6

Kisvarda FC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSKAS ACADEMY · PPG 1.30

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Puskas Academy (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -11.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

Kisvarda FC (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puskas Academy face Kisvarda FC in Hungary - NB I on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puskas Academy a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Kisvarda FC 24%, so Puskas Academy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Puskas Academy and 1.0 for Kisvarda FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puskas Academy are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.14 for Kisvarda FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Puskas Academy vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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