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Ulfstind vs Skjervøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 17:00

Ulfstind

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skjervøy

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.5%0-20.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-00.8%1-11.9%1-22.3%1-31.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-01.4%2-13.5%2-24.3%2-33.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.8%3-14.4%3-25.4%3-34.4%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-110.8%4+-213.2%4+-310.8%4+-4+11.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% — — —

Draw 17.6% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 62.5% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.5% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob70.3%

H 58% / xG 3.7-2.5 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.4%

#2 4–2 5.0%

#3 3–3 4.4%

#4 3–1 4.4%

#5 2–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulfstind3.7

Skjervøy2.5

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 62.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULFSTIND · PPG 1.17

SKJERVØY · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ulfstind (H) 57.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skjervøy (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulfstind face Skjervøy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulfstind a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Skjervøy 25%, so Ulfstind are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Ulfstind and 2.5 for Skjervøy (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulfstind are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Skjervøy.

Ulfstind vs Skjervøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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