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Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 01:05

Toluca

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Necaxa

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.9%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-19.9%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.7%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.3%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 65.8% 1.52 -21.0%

Draw 24.5% 23.0% 4.35 +3.9%

Away win 23.5% 18.2% 5.50 +17.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 67.6% 1.48 -21.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 69.4% 1.44 -22.8%

Away O1.5 33.3% 33.9% 2.95 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 27%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca2.0

Necaxa1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA · PPG 1.44

NECAXA · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Toluca (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -21.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +3.9%

Necaxa (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca face Necaxa in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Necaxa 24%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Toluca and 1.0 for Necaxa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.99 for Necaxa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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