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Leon vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:00

Leon

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

CF Pachuca

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.2%0-27.4%0-34.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-17.2%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 34.7% 2.88 -8.1%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 42.5% 43.5% 2.30 -2.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 34.4% 41.7% 2.40 -17.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leon1.3

CF Pachuca1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEON · PPG 1.08

CF PACHUCA · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leon (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

CF Pachuca (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leon face CF Pachuca in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leon a 32% chance, the draw 26% and CF Pachuca 43%, so CF Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leon and 1.6 for CF Pachuca (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leon are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.80 for CF Pachuca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Leon vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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